理解温度与犯罪之间的联系
Understanding the Link between Temperature and Crime
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2024 · [{"name": "François Cohen", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Fidel González", "affiliation": ["Sam Houston State University"]}]
中文摘要
炎热天气与犯罪之间的相关性已有充分记录，但尚未被完全理解。我们结合数百万条行政记录、关于未报告犯罪的受害调查以及每日天气信息，分析了温度对墨西哥犯罪的影响。我们发现，样本选择无法解释观测到的温度与犯罪之间的正相关关系。此外，我们发现周末酒精消费和时间使用的变化导致了28%的温度诱发犯罪。我们还观察到犯罪发生时间和地点的变化，为时间使用作为犯罪决定因素的重要性提供了新证据。（JEL D91, K42, O13, O17, Q54）
Abstract
The correlation between hot weather and crime is well documented but not fully understood. We combine millions of administrative records, victimization surveys on unreported crime, and daily weather information to analyze the effect of temperatures on crime in Mexico. We find that sample selection cannot explain the observed positive correlation between temperature and crime. Moreover, we find that shifts in alcohol consumption and time use on weekends are responsible for 28 percent of temperature-induced crimes. We also observe changes in the hour and location of crimes, providing new evidence on the importance of time use as a determinant of crime. (JEL D91, K42, O13, O17, Q54)