用指数化灾害基金拯救生命：来自墨西哥的证据

中文摘要

发展中经济体并未不成比例地暴露于自然灾害，但其死亡人数却显著更多。利用墨西哥指数化灾害基金（Fonden）资格规则中的一个断点，本文表明，加快公共基础设施重建能够显著缓解灾害对死亡率的影响。Fonden的影响集中在拥有医疗基础设施的地区，以及对基本且免费可及的医疗护理敏感的病症中。这些发现表明，Fonden通过恢复卫生服务的可及性发挥作用。本文还表明，相对于其他干预措施，Fonden具有成本效益，其收益成本比至少为3.2。（JEL D61, H12, H54, H84, I18, O13, Q54）

Abstract

Developing economies are not disproportionately exposed to natural disasters, but they experience significantly more deaths. Exploiting a discontinuity in the eligibility rules for Mexico’s indexed disaster fund (Fonden), I show that the accelerated reconstruction of public infrastructure can significantly mitigate the mortality impacts of disasters. Fonden’s impact is concentrated in areas with medical infrastructure and among conditions responsive to basic and freely available medical care. These findings suggest that Fonden operates by restoring access to health services. I also show that Fonden is cost-effective relative to other interventions and that its benefit–cost ratio is at least 3.2. (JEL D61, H12, H54, H84, I18, O13, Q54)