海上移民：搜救行动的意外后果
Migrants at Sea: Unintended Consequences of Search and Rescue Operations
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2024 · [{"name": "Claudio Deiana", "affiliation": ["University of Cagliari"]}, {"name": "Vikram Maheshri", "affiliation": ["University of Houston"]}, {"name": "Giovanni Mastrobuoni", "affiliation": ["Collegio Carlo Alberto"]}]
中文摘要
许多国家正面临并抵制强大的移民压力，这助长了非正规移民。为应对中地中海地区死亡人数持续上升，欧洲国家于2013年加强了搜救行动。我们构建了一个非正规移民模型，以识别这些行动的影响。我们发现，走私者的应对方式是在恶劣天气中派出船只并使用脆弱的橡皮筏，从而诱发更多在危险条件下的越境行动，并最终因道德风险抵消了预期的安全收益。尽管风险增加，这些行动很可能提高了移民的总体福利；然而，更成功的政策应转而限制橡皮筏供给并扩大合法替代途径。(JEL D82, J15, J18, K37, K42)
Abstract
Many countries are facing and resisting strong migratory pressure, fueling irregular migration. In response to mounting deaths in the Central Mediterranean, European nations intensified rescue operations in 2013. We develop a model of irregular migration to identify the effects of these operations. We find that smugglers responded by sending boats in adverse weather and utilizing flimsy rafts, thus inducing more crossings in dangerous conditions and ultimately offsetting intended safety benefits due to moral hazard. Despite the increased risk, these operations likely increased aggregate migrant welfare; nevertheless, a more successful policy should instead restrict supply of rafts and expand legal alternatives. (JEL D82, J15, J18, K37, K42)