幸运的家庭?
Fortunate Families?
Journal of Human Resources · 2026 · [{"name": "David Cesarini", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research"]}, {"name": "Erik Lindqvist", "affiliation": ["Institute for Social and Economic Research"]}, {"name": "Robert Östling", "affiliation": ["Stockholm School of Economics"]}, {"name": "Anastasia Terskaya", "affiliation": ["Barcelona School of Economics"]}]
中文摘要
我们估计了大额、正向财富冲击对瑞典彩票参与者婚姻与生育的影响。对于男性中奖者，财富促进了婚姻形成与生育，并可能降低了离婚风险。对于女性中奖者，唯一明确的影响是短期（而非长期）离婚风险上升。这些具有性别差异的处理效应通常与收入梯度相似。我们的发现与以下模型一致：妻子在单身时从消费中获得的边际效用高于已婚时，而丈夫则相反——但这一结论仅在离婚时婚姻财产不平等分割的情况下成立。我们提供了与这种不平等分割相一致的描述性证据。
Abstract
<h3>Abstract</h3> We estimate the effects of large, positive wealth shocks on marriage and fertility among Swedish lottery players. For male winners, wealth increases marriage formation and fertility and likely reduces divorce risk. For female winners, the only clear effect is a higher short-run (but not long-run) divorce risk. The gendered treatment effects are often similar to income gradients. Our findings align with models in which wives derive greater marginal utility from consumption when single than when married, whereas the opposite holds for husbands—but only if marital property is divided unequally upon divorce. We provide descriptive evidence consistent with such unequal division.