养老金改革与快速老龄化对储蓄和劳动供给的影响：以中国为例

Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Hui He", "affiliation": ["International Monetary Fund", "Shanghai Jiao Tong University", "Shanghai Advanced Research Institute"]}, {"name": "Lei Ning", "affiliation": ["Shanghai University of Finance and Economics"]}, {"name": "Dongming Zhu", "affiliation": ["Liaoning University"]}]

中文摘要

过去三十年间，受养老金改革影响，中国的社会保障待遇经历了大幅削减，同时发生了深刻的人口结构变化。本文结合实证研究与一般均衡框架下的定量分析，考察了中国养老金改革与快速人口老龄化对家庭储蓄和劳动供给行为的影响。通过将模型校准至中国经济，我们发现，仅养老金改革一项就解释了1995年至2009年间家庭储蓄率上升幅度的约25%，以及同期劳动供给急剧上升幅度的49%。这些效应因快速老龄化而被显著放大。我们的研究表明，面对养老金慷慨程度与长寿风险的变化，家庭储蓄和劳动供给在数量上都是重要的自我保险渠道。

Abstract

Over the past three decades, China has experienced substantial reductions in social security benefits due to pension reforms and undergone profound demographic changes. By combining empirical studies and quantitative analyses in a general equilibrium setting, this paper examines the effects of China’s pension reforms and rapid population aging on household saving and labor supply behaviors. Calibrating the model to the Chinese economy, we find that the pension reforms alone account for approximately 25 percent of the increase in the household saving rate between 1995 and 2009, and 49 percent of the sharp rise in labor supply over the same period. These effects are significantly amplified by rapid aging. Our study demonstrates that both household saving and labor supply serve as quantitatively important self-insurance channels in response to changes in pension generosity and longevity risk.