对遗产税的行为反应：来自巴西的证据

中文摘要

我考察个人在新税法生效前三个月已知税率将提高的情境下，对遗产税与赠与税的行为反应。利用巴西税收微观数据，我采用聚束法与双重差分（DD）方法，发现个人会显著重新安排财富转移的时点以规避税负。重新安排时点的赠与导致此后近三年的遗产规模较小。此外，我发现行为反应对最高赠与边际税率的变化以及税制设计（单一税率与累进税级）较为敏感。最后，在改革州，中期逃税行为有所增加，尤其是在小额遗产中。

Abstract

I examine behavioral responses to inheritance and gift taxes in a setting where individuals knew the tax would increase three months before the new tax code took effect. Using tax microdata from Brazil, I employ bunching and difference-in-differences (DD) methods and find that individuals significantly retime their wealth transfers to avoid taxes. Retimed gifts resulted in smaller inheritances for nearly three years. Moreover, I find that responses are sensitive to changes in top gift marginal tax rates and tax design (flat rates vs progressive brackets). Finally, evasion increased in the medium run in reform states, particularly among small inheritances.