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对遗产税的行为反应:来自巴西的证据

Behavioral responses to inheritance taxes: Evidence from Brazil
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · Gedeao Locks

中文摘要

本文利用巴西的行政微观数据,考察遗产税与赠与税的行为反应,其背景是纳税人提前三个月便已知晓税率将会上调。本文记录了四项发现。第一,在改革生效前夕,赠与激增约300%。第二,遗产申报数量下降30%,主要原因是小额遗产变得免税。第三,应税家庭在集约边际上作出反应,减少申报遗赠的规模,这意味着申报遗赠相对于税后净得比例(1−税率)的弹性为2.3–3.2。第四,流动资产在各类转移渠道之间重新配置:赠与的流动性上升43%,而遗赠的流动性下降22%。总体而言,这些结果表明税率、免税门槛与资产流动性如何共同影响财富转移的时点、规模与构成。

Abstract

In this paper, I examine behavioral responses to inheritance and gift taxes using administrative microdata from Brazil, in a context where taxpayers knew three months in advance that tax rates would increase. I document four findings. First, gifts surge by about 300% just before the reform takes effect. Second, estate filings fall by 30%, largely because small estates become exempt. Third, taxable households respond on the intensive margin by reducing the size of declared bequests, implying an elasticity of reported bequests with respect to the net-of-tax rate of 2.3–3.2. Fourth, liquid assets are reallocated across transfer channels: gift liquidity rises by 43%, while bequest liquidity declines by 22%. Overall, these results show how tax rates, exemption thresholds, and asset liquidity jointly affect the timing, size, and composition of wealth transfers.
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