租金补贴的归宿：关于租金、住房选择与供给的证据
The incidence of rent subsidies: Evidence on rents, housing choices and supply
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Essi Eerola", "affiliation": ["Bank of Finland"]}, {"name": "Teemu Lyytikäinen", "affiliation": ["VATT Institute for Economic Research"]}, {"name": "Tuukka Saarimaa", "affiliation": ["Aalto University"]}, {"name": "Tuuli Vanhapelto", "affiliation": ["Adam Smith Institute", "University of Glasgow"]}]
中文摘要
本文考察向低收入家庭发放的租金补贴是否以及在何种情况下会推高租金。我们研究了芬兰住房津贴制度的一项改革，该改革导致住房津贴出现了大规模准随机变化。利用涵盖改革前后各五年的行政登记数据，我们发现，受影响住房单位的津贴大幅增加，但相对于其他单位，这对其租金几乎没有影响或没有影响。住房津贴每增加1欧元，租金相应增加约0.036欧元，标准误为0.028。我们就驱动租金效应的潜在需求侧和供给侧反应提供了新的证据。改革仅导致受助者的住房选择发生小幅变化，且出租供给至多出现温和变化。我们的解读是：即使在供给受限的情境下，只要受助者的住房选择对补贴反应不敏感，租金补贴仍能有效帮助受助家庭。
Abstract
This paper asks whether, and under which circumstances, rent subsidies to low-income households increase rents. We study a reform of the Finnish housing allowance system that caused large quasi-random variation in housing allowances. Using register data spanning five years before and after the reform, we find that large increases in allowances for affected housing units had little or no effect on their rents relative to other units. The effect of a one-euro increase in housing allowance on rent is roughly 0.036 euros with a standard error of 0.028. We provide novel evidence on the underlying demand- and supply-side responses that drive the rent effects. The reform led to only small changes in recipients’ housing choices, and at most modest changes in rental supply. Our interpretation is that rent subsidies can be effective in helping recipient households even in supply-constrained contexts, if recipients’ housing choices are unresponsive to the subsidy.