气候冲击、气旋与经济增长：弥合微观—宏观差距
Climate Shocks, Cyclones and Economic Growth: Bridging the Micro-Macro Gap
The Economic Journal · 2025 · [{"name": "Laura Bakkensen", "affiliation": ["University of Oregon"]}, {"name": "Lint Barrage", "affiliation": ["ETH Zurich"]}]
中文摘要
摘要 本文提出一种经验-结构联合方法，以量化气旋风险对经济增长和福利的影响。首先，我们在一个统一的全球数据集中，并通过理论视角，回顾了既有的简化式方法。其次，我们估计气旋对增长结构性决定因素（全要素生产率、资本损失和死亡人数）的影响，以量化一个适用于四十个脆弱国家的随机内生增长气旋-经济模型。第三，我们研究气候变化对气旋风险的影响。结果表明，风险变化对增长具有负向但大多较为温和的影响，不过这些影响可能随时间累积为显著的福利损失，尤其是在加勒比地区和美国。
Abstract
Abstract This paper proposes a joint empirical-structural approach to quantify the impacts of cyclone risks on economic growth and welfare. First, we review prior reduced-form approaches in a harmonised global dataset and through a theory lens. Second, we estimate cyclone impacts on structural determinants of growth (total factor productivity, capital losses and fatalities) to quantify a stochastic endogenous growth cyclone-economy model for forty vulnerable countries. Third, we study climate change impacts on cyclone risk. The results suggest negative but mostly modest impacts of risk changes on growth, which may nonetheless add up over time to substantial welfare losses, especially in the Caribbean and the United States.