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耐心与人力资本的次国家差异:基于 Facebook 兴趣的区域分析

Patience and Subnational Differences in Human Capital: Regional Analysis with Facebook Interests
The Economic Journal · 2026 · Eric A. Hanushek、Lavinia Kinne、Pietro Sancassani、Ludger Woessmann

中文摘要

投资人力资本的决策取决于人们的时间偏好。本文表明,耐心差异与教育成就的巨大次国家差异密切相关,为长期存在的国内差距提供了新的视角。我们使用社交媒体数据——Facebook 兴趣——构建了意大利和美国区域层面的新型耐心度量指标。该方法首先通过耐心与 Facebook 兴趣的跨国分析得到验证。随后我们表明,在两国各地区之间,耐心与学生成就均呈强正相关,可解释意大利各地区成就变异的四分之三,以及美国各州成就变异的三分之一。这一发现在采用美国各州当前人口祖籍国变异的识别策略中得到了进一步证实。对于区域成就数据较为有限的其他六个国家,该结果同样成立。

Abstract

Abstract Decisions to invest in human capital depend on people's time preferences. This paper shows that differences in patience are closely related to substantial subnational differences in educational achievement, leading to new perspectives on long-standing within-country disparities. We use social media data—Facebook interests—to construct novel regional measures of patience within Italy and the United States. The approach is first validated with a cross-country analysis of patience and Facebook interests. We then show that patience is strongly positively associated with student achievement across regions in both countries, accounting for three-quarters of the achievement variation across Italian regions and one-third across US states. The finding is confirmed in an identification strategy employing variation in ancestry countries of the current populations of US states. Results hold for six other countries with more limited regional achievement data.
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