出生队列规模变动与班级规模效应的估计
Birth Cohort Size Variation and the Estimation of Class Size Effects
Journal of Human Resources · 2024 · [{"name": "Maximilian Bach", "affiliation": ["Hess (United States)"]}, {"name": "Stephan Sievert", "affiliation": ["Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs"]}]
中文摘要
我们表明，在存在留级或推迟入学现象的学校系统中，出生队列规模与年级层面超龄学生占比呈负相关。这种构成效应会导致利用校内出生队列规模变动的常用研究设计，在估计班级规模效应时产生向上偏误。利用德国某一联邦州所有小学的数据，我们发现了支持这一构成效应的证据。在校正由此产生的偏误后，我们发现，较小的班级不仅有利于提高考试成绩，也有助于减少留级。
Abstract
<h3>Abstract</h3> We show that in school systems with grade retention or redshirting birth cohort size is negatively related to the grade-level share of students who are too old for their grade. This compositional effect gives rise to an upward bias in estimates of class size effects based on commonly used research designs exploiting within-school variation in birth cohort size. Using data for all primary schools in one federal state of Germany, we find support for this compositional effect. Correcting for the resulting bias, we find that not only are smaller classes beneficial for test scores, but also for reducing grade repetitions.