气候变化适应政策的成本与收益：来自巴基斯坦随机对照试验和极端洪水的证据
Cost and Benefits of Climate Change Adaptation Policies: Evidence from an RCT and Extreme Flooding in Pakistan
Journal of the European Economic Association · 2025 · [{"name": "Alexandra Avdeenko", "affiliation": ["World Bank Group"]}, {"name": "Markus Frölich", "affiliation": ["University of Mannheim"]}]
中文摘要
气候变化成本的一个重要组成部分是适应计划所需的投资。有效的适应策略正日益成为管理气候变化负面经济影响的必要手段。在本研究中，我们估计了在不同环境情景下纳入适应成本与收益的气候变化损害成本。在3年期间，我们追踪了信德省农村家庭，其中一些家庭在2016年经历了极端季风洪水。我们展示了有针对性的气候适应措施如何能够有效缓解不利气候影响并促进韧性。与随机选择的对照组相比，参与人道主义援助备灾计划的社区在经历负面天气冲击后，在粮食安全和健康结果方面表现出显著改善。成本收益分析表明，适应投资在短期内即可收回成本；如果考虑更长的时间范围，则有潜力显著降低碳的社会成本。本文通过展示如何利用田野实验的估计来更新气候变化预测成本，为气候变化文献作出贡献，同时也强调了这种方法的局限性。
Abstract
Abstract A significant component of the cost of climate change is the investment required for adaptation programs. Effective adaptation strategies are becoming essential for managing the negative economic impacts of climate change. In this study, we estimate climate change damage costs that incorporate adaptation costs and benefits under different environmental scenarios. Over a 3-year period, we tracked households in rural Sindh, some of which experienced extreme monsoon flooding in 2016. We present how targeted climate adaptation measures can be effective in mitigating adverse climate effects and fostering resilience. Compared to a randomly selected control group, communities participating in a humanitarian aid preparedness program demonstrated significant improvements in food security and health outcomes after experiencing the negative weather shock. A cost-benefit analysis shows that the adaptation investments pay for themselves after a short period of time and have the potential to considerably reduce the social costs of carbon if a longer time horizon is considered. This paper contributes to the climate change literature by demonstrating how estimates from field experiments can be used to update the costs of climate change projections, while also highlighting the limitations of this approach.