重新思考非正规经济与雨果效应

中文摘要

本文提出了一种基于欧盟增值税数据衡量非正规经济规模的新方法。尽管数据需求较高，我们的“逃避增值税经济”（EVADE）指标比现有指标更简单、更透明。与早期指标相比，EVADE还显示出更大的欧洲各国间差异，例如希腊、意大利和西班牙的非正规性更高。此外，我们发现各国内部随时间变化的差异也相当大；在控制税率的跨国时间序列回归中，我们证实非正规经济在衰退期显著增长、在繁荣期下降，我们将此称为“雨果效应”。

Abstract

Abstract This paper offers a new approach to measuring the size of the informal economy based on VAT data for the European Union. Although data intensive, our evading value added duty economy (EVADE) measure is simpler and more transparent than existing measures. EVADE also shows more variation across countries of Europe than earlier measures, including higher informality in Greece, Italy, and Spain, for example. Moreover, we find considerably higher variation within countries across time; in a cross-country time series regression, controlling for tax rates, we confirm that the informal economy grows significantly in recessions and decreases in booms, which we term the “Hugo effect”.