对财富冲击的动态支出反应：来自股票市场准彩票的证据
Dynamic Spending Responses to Wealth Shocks: Evidence from Quasi Lotteries on the Stock Market
AER: Insights · 2024 · [{"name": "Asger Lau Andersen", "affiliation": ["University of Copenhagen"]}, {"name": "Niels Johannesen", "affiliation": ["University of Copenhagen"]}, {"name": "Adam Sheridan", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
家庭会在多大程度上、并在多长的时间跨度内根据股票市场财富冲击调整消费？我们利用一家大型银行的详细支出和股票投资组合数据，并利用投资组合特征相似的投资者之间收益的类彩票式变异来回答这些问题。与持久收入假说一致，家庭对股票市场收益的支出反应是即时且持续的。月度反应累积起来，一年期的边际消费倾向为4.4%，三年期为16%。结果表明，在长达一年的时间跨度内，注意力不足会削弱家庭对股票市场周期的反应。(JEL D12, E21, G11, G14, G51)
Abstract
How much and over what horizon do households adjust their consumption in response to stock market wealth shocks? We address these questions using granular data on spending and stock portfolios from a large bank and exploiting lottery-like variation in gains across investors with similar portfolio characteristics. Consistent with the permanent income hypothesis, spending responses to stock market gains are immediate and persistent. The monthly responses cumulate to marginal propensities to consume of 4.4 percent over one year and 16 percent over three years. The results suggest that inattention attenuates household responses to stock market cycles over horizons as long as one year. (JEL D12, E21, G11, G14, G51)