马歇尔加上马尔萨斯能否解释古代社会的演变？——评道与里德的《经济史前史》

中文摘要

格雷戈里·K·道与克莱德·G·里德在一部涉猎广泛、学术功力非凡的著作中，运用传统微观经济理论来解释“塑造世界的六大转变”，即向定居生活、农耕、不平等、战争、城市和国家的转变。他们提出的模型对潜在因果机制的阐释达到了考古学文献中少见的清晰程度。然而，鉴于当前的考古学证据，我们对他们的一些关键实证主张并不信服；我们还认为，当代经济学——包括演化博弈论——能够提供比作者所采用的马歇尔式分析方法更为合适的模型。

Abstract

In a work of extraordinary scope and scholarship, Gregory K. Dow and Clyde G. Reed deploy conventional microeconomic theory to explain “six transitions that shaped the world,” namely, the transitions to sedentism, farming, inequality, war, cities, and states. The models they offer provide a level of clarity about potential causal mechanisms that is unusual in the archaeological literature. But we are not convinced by some of their key empirical claims in light of current archaeological evidence, and we think that contemporary economics—including evolutionary game theory—has more appropriate models to offer than the Marshallian approach taken by the authors. (JEL C73, N10, N40, N50, Q10, Q54)