美国史上规模最大企业减税的经验教训

Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2024 · [{"name": "Gabriel Chodorow-Reich", "affiliation": ["Arrow International (United States)"]}, {"name": "Owen Zidar", "affiliation": ["Princeton University", "Princeton Public Schools"]}, {"name": "Eric Zwick", "affiliation": ["Chicago Public Schools"]}]

中文摘要

我们评估了2017年《减税与就业法案》的企业条款，这是美国历史上规模最大的企业减税。我们得出五点经验教训。第一，由于税率降低和费用化处理更加慷慨，企业所得税收入下降了40%。第二，有效税收楔子降幅较大的企业，其投资增加相对更多。总体而言，我们提出文献中存在一种松散的共识，即有形企业总投资增长了11%。第三，这些企业税收条款对经济增长和工资的提振作用，小于该法案支持者所宣称的程度：长期GDP提高不到1%，劳动收入每名员工增加不到1000美元。第四，旨在增加美国跨国公司海外投资的条款，也促进了其国内业务。第五，部分已到期和即将到期的条款（如加速折旧）每美元税收收入所产生的投资，多于其他条款。

Abstract

We assess the business provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the biggest corporate tax cut in US history. We draw five lessons. First, corporate tax revenue fell by 40 percent due to the lower rate and more generous expensing. Second, firms with larger declines in their effective tax wedge increased investment relatively more. In aggregate, we suggest a loose consensus from the literature that total tangible corporate investment increased by 11 percent. Third, the business tax provisions increased economic growth and wages by less than advertised by the Act’s proponents, with long-run GDP higher by less than 1 percent and labor income by less than $1,000 per employee. Fourth, provisions that increase foreign investment by US-based multinationals also boost their domestic operations. Fifth, some of the expired and expiring provisions, such as accelerated depreciation, generate more investment per dollar of tax revenue than others.