美国史上最大规模企业减税的经验教训

中文摘要

我们评估了2017年《减税与就业法案》中的企业税收条款，这是美国历史上规模最大的企业减税。我们总结出五点经验教训。第一，由于税率降低和费用化扣除更为慷慨，企业税收收入下降了40%。第二，有效税收楔子降幅更大的企业，其投资增幅相对更大。总体而言，我们认为，文献中形成的一个较宽松的共识是，企业有形投资总额增加了11%。第三，企业税收条款对经济增长和工资的提升幅度低于该法案支持者所宣称的水平：长期GDP增幅不足1%，每名雇员的劳动收入增幅不足1,000美元。第四，促进美国跨国企业增加海外投资的条款，也会扩大其国内业务规模。第五，部分已到期和即将到期的条款（如加速折旧）相较于其他条款，每单位税收成本带来的投资更多。

Abstract

We assess the business provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the biggest corporate tax cut in US history. We draw five lessons. First, corporate tax revenue fell by 40 percent due to the lower rate and more generous expensing. Second, firms with larger declines in their effective tax wedge increased investment relatively more. In aggregate, we suggest a loose consensus from the literature that total tangible corporate investment increased by 11 percent. Third, the business tax provisions increased economic growth and wages by less than advertised by the Act’s proponents, with long-run GDP higher by less than 1 percent and labor income by less than $1,000 per employee. Fourth, provisions that increase foreign investment by US-based multinationals also boost their domestic operations. Fifth, some of the expired and expiring provisions, such as accelerated depreciation, generate more investment per dollar of tax revenue than others.