剧变与不确定的遗产：2017年《减税与就业法案》

Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2024 · [{"name": "William G. Gale", "affiliation": ["Brookings Institution"]}, {"name": "Jeffrey L. Hoopes", "affiliation": ["University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill"]}, {"name": "Kyle Pomerleau", "affiliation": ["American Enterprise Institute"]}]

中文摘要

2017年《减税与就业法案》（TCJA）对个人和企业税收进行了全面改革。我们总结了主要条款，追溯了该法案的起源，并将其与以往的税收变化进行比较。我们还考察了该法案对政府预算、经济活动和资源分配的影响。基于截至2019年的证据，我们发现TCJA明显增加了联邦债务，提高了税后收入，且不成比例地增加了最富裕群体的收入。其对GDP和工资中位数的影响似乎充其量是温和的，尽管难以确定清晰的反事实。对投资的影响则不太确定，探讨这一问题的研究最近才刚刚出现。由于2020年起新冠疫情造成的干扰，对长期效应的实证分析可能会被证明是困难的。

Abstract

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 introduced sweeping changes to individual and corporate taxation. We summarize the major provisions, trace the origins of the Act, and compare it to previous tax changes. We also examine the effects on the government budget, economic activity, and distribution of resources. Based on evidence through 2019, we find that the TCJA clearly raised federal debt and increased after-tax incomes, disproportionately increasing incomes for the most affluent. Its effects on GDP and median wages seem modest at best, although clear counterfactuals are difficult to identify. The impact on investment is less certain, and research is only recently emerging that addresses this question. Empirical analysis of longer-term effects may prove difficult due to the disruptions created by the COVID-19 pandemic starting in 2020.