Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2024 · [{"name": "Kimberly A. Clausing", "affiliation": ["Kimberly-Clark (Canada)"]}]
中文摘要
影响美国国际税收过去、现在和未来的根本困境,在于两个期望目标之间的张力:保护企业税基免受侵蚀,以及确保美国跨国公司在世界经济中的竞争力。本文首先探讨这一张力,讨论这些相互竞争的政策目标背后的证据;随后考察2017年《减税与就业法案》(TCJA)的国际税收条款。TCJA对美国企业税收政策实施了变革性的改变,但并未解决长期存在的政策关切。尽管关于TCJA的研究尚处于早期阶段,但现有证据表明:TCJA大幅减少了企业税收收入;TCJA的国际条款(整体而言)筹集的收入低于预期;离岸外包和利润转移仍是重大的政策关切;美国跨国公司竞争力的变化好坏参半;且工资和投资的潜在趋势并未因TCJA而改变。虽然TCJA未能化解竞争力与税基保护之间的张力,但“支柱二”国际税收协议在这方面显示出更大的前景。随着世界各国对跨国公司收入实施15%的“按国别”最低税,这有可能颠覆关于国际企业税收的长期争论。
Abstract
The root dilemma that informs the past, present, and future of US international taxation is the tension between two desiderata: protecting the corporate tax base from erosion and ensuring the competitiveness of US multinational firms in the world economy. This article begins by exploring that tension, discussing the evidence behind these competing policy goals. It then considers the international tax provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. TCJA enacted transformative changes in US corporate tax policy, but it did not resolve long held policy concerns. While research on TCJA is in early stages, evidence indicates that TCJA substantially reduced corporate tax revenues, that TCJA’s international provisions (as a whole) raised less revenue than expected, that offshoring and profit shifting remain large policy concerns, that changes in US multinational company competitiveness were mixed, and that underlying trends in wages and investment did not change due to TCJA. While TCJA was unable to resolve the tension between competitiveness and tax base protection, the Pillar 2 international tax agreement shows more promise in that regard. As countries throughout the world implement a “country-by-country” minimum tax on multinational income of 15 percent, this has the potential to disrupt long-standing arguments about international corporate taxation.