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非洲人口转型的需求侧

The Demand Side of Africa’s Demographic Transition
Journal of Human Resources · 2026 · Céline Zipfel

中文摘要

本文考察撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)理想生育水平、财富与女性就业之间的关系。尽管在各个财富水平上,SSA的理想家庭规模普遍更高,但相对于其他地区的差距在较贫困家庭中明显更大,并随财富增加而缩小。此外,SSA中较贫困的女性从事有薪工作的可能性更低。对这两种模式之间关系的考察显示,在SSA各省份中,理想生育水平与有薪工作普及率之间呈负相关,而这一趋势在其他地区几乎不存在。此外,在SSA各省份内部,女性有薪就业占比随时间上升与更平缓的财富—理想生育水平梯度相关。

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between desired fertility, wealth, and female employment in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). While ideal family size is generally higher at all levels of wealth in SSA, the gap relative to other regions is substantially larger among poorer households and narrows with wealth. Additionally, poorer women in SSA are less likely to work for wages. Examining the relationship between these two patterns reveals a negative correlation between desired fertility and wage work prevalence across SSA provinces, a trend virtually absent in other regions. Furthermore, within SSA provinces, increases in the share of women engaged in wage work over time are associated with a flatter wealth-desired fertility gradient.
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