非洲人口转型的需求侧

中文摘要

本文考察撒哈拉以南非洲地区期望生育率、财富与女性就业之间的关系。尽管在撒哈拉以南非洲，各财富水平上的理想家庭规模普遍更高，但相对于其他地区的差距在较贫困家庭中显著更大，并随财富上升而缩小。此外，撒哈拉以南非洲较贫困的女性从事有薪工作的可能性较低。考察这两种模式之间的关系发现，在撒哈拉以南非洲各省之间，期望生育率与有薪工作普及率之间存在负相关，而这一趋势在其他地区几乎不存在。进一步地，在撒哈拉以南非洲各省内部，从事有薪工作的女性比例随时间上升，与更为平缓的财富—期望生育率梯度相关。

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between desired fertility, wealth, and female employment in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). While ideal family size is generally higher at all levels of wealth in SSA, the gap relative to other regions is substantially larger among poorer households and narrows with wealth. Additionally, poorer women in SSA are less likely to work for wages. Examining the relationship between these two patterns reveals a negative correlation between desired fertility and wage work prevalence across SSA provinces, a trend virtually absent in other regions. Furthermore, within SSA provinces, increases in the share of women engaged in wage work over time are associated with a flatter wealth-desired fertility gradient.