Using Randomized Controlled Trials to Estimate Long-Run Impacts in Development Economics
Annual Review of Economics · 2019 · Adrien Bouguen、Yue Huang、Michael Kremer、Edward Miguel
中文摘要
我们评估了随机对照试验（RCT）提供的有关贫穷国家长期经济生产率和生活水平的证据。我们首先梳理发现，若干研究估计出了较大的正向长期影响，但现有RCT中接受过长期评估的相对较少。接下来，我们呈现了一项针对现有RCT的系统性调查所提供的证据，重点关注现金转移支付和儿童健康项目，并表明其中有一定数量的试验在现实条件下可以开展长期效应评估。我们讨论了如何缩小发展经济学RCT数量迅速增长与迄今接受随访的试验数量有限之间的差距，包括利用新的面板（纵向）数据、改进参与者追踪方法、采用替代性研究设计，以及获取行政数据、遥感数据和手机数据。我们得出结论，大约自2000年以来发展经济学RCT的兴起，为获取有关生活水平长期驱动因素的高质量证据提供了新的机会。
Abstract
We assess evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on long-run economic productivity and living standards in poor countries. We first document that several studies estimate large positive long-run impacts, but that relatively few existing RCTs have been evaluated over the long run. We next present evidence from a systematic survey of existing RCTs, with a focus on cash transfer and child health programs, and show that a meaningful subset can realistically be evaluated for long-run effects. We discuss ways to bridge the gap between the burgeoning number of development RCTs and the limited number that have been followed up to date, including through new panel (longitudinal) data; improved participant tracking methods; alternative research designs; and access to administrative, remote sensing, and cell phone data. We conclude that the rise of development economics RCTs since roughly 2000 provides a novel opportunity to generate high-quality evidence on the long-run drivers of living standards.