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训练人工智能以适应人类的使用时机

Training AI for When Humans Will Use It
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Kevin A. Bryan、Joshua S. Gans

中文摘要

人工智能进行预测;人类利用其预测作出决策。这些预测会与人工核验和分析、对其他统计模型的查询等相结合。因此,人工智能的经济价值取决于它如何与周围的决策环境相互作用。我们将人工智能的价值刻画为这一“复合实验”的组成部分,其中人工智能对世界状态作出粗略预测;我们通过几何论证说明这对最优模型训练意味着什么,解释为何最优训练可能随经济变量发生不连续变化,并研究异质性用户或垄断模型训练者如何影响这些结果。特别是,以最大化人工智能预测的无条件准确率为目标通常并非最优。

Abstract

AI predicts; humans use its predictions to make decisions. These predictions are combined with human verification and analysis, queries to other statistical models, and so on. The economic value of an AI, therefore, depends on how it interacts with the surrounding decision environment. We describe the value of AI as part of this "composite experiment" where AI makes a coarse prediction of the state of the world, show what this means for optimal model training via a geometric argument, explain why optimal training can be discontinuous in economic variables, and study how heterogeneous users or monopoly model trainers affect these results. In particular, maximizing the unconditional accuracy of AI predictions is generally suboptimal.
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