NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Vittoria Dicandia", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Silvia Vannutelli", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
我们研究了当此前受限的移民在存在大量非正规就业的劳动力市场中获得完整且可携带的工作权利时，企业与工人如何调整。我们利用2007年保加利亚和罗马尼亚加入欧盟这一事件，该事件赋予了意大利最大移民群体不受限制的工作权利。利用匹配的雇主-雇员行政数据和IV-DID（工具变量-双重差分）设计，我们发现企业突然且持续地将雇佣结构转向EU07工人，压缩了本地工人的就业份额，但并未减少本地工人的雇佣或增加其离职。我们未检测到本地工人或EU07工人的工资出现任何显著变化。对于移民而言，这一零效应反映了相互抵消的构成变化：新被观测到的和原有的EU07工人以不同的工资轨迹进入正规就业。与议价能力向工人转移的态势相一致，EU07移民在工作流动性和工作保障方面均取得了显著改善。总体而言，证据表明，解除法律限制重塑了企业的人事选择，改变了移民的雇佣关系，改善了他们的外部选择、议价地位，以及获得更稳定工作的机会。
Abstract
We study how firms and workers adjust when previously restricted migrants gain full and portable work rights in a labor market with substantial informality. We exploit the 2007 EU accession of Bulgaria and Romania, which granted unrestricted work rights to Italy's largest migrant group. Using matched employer–employee administrative data and an IV-DID design, we find that firms suddenly and persistently shift employment composition toward EU07 workers, compressing the native employment share without reducing native hiring or increasing separations. We don't detect any significant change in wages for either natives or EU07 workers. For migrants, this null effect reflects offsetting compositional shifts as newly observed and incumbent EU07 workers enter the formal workforce with different wage trajectories. Consistent with a shift in bargaining power toward workers, EU07 migrants experienced significant gains in job mobility and job security. Overall, the evidence suggests that removing legal restrictions reshaped firms’ personnel choices and altered migrants’ employment relationships, improving their outside options, bargaining position, and access to more secure jobs.