GLP-1类药物对劳动力市场的影响
The Labor Market Impacts of GLP-1s
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "N. Meltem Daysal", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Camille JH. Fredrickson", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Ida L. Kristiansen", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Mircea Trandafir", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Jonathan Zhang", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
我们利用关联的丹麦行政数据和匹配的堆叠双重差分设计，估计了GLP-1治疗对劳动力市场结果的因果影响。我们比较了在司美格鲁肽上市头两年内开始GLP-1治疗的患者，与四年后开始治疗、且在可观测特征上相似的患者。我们发现，GLP-1治疗使长期病假减少了17.3%。我们估计，每位就业者因启动GLP-1治疗而获得的总财政收益约为其年劳动收入的1.3–1.5%。在四年期内，我们没有检测到对收入、劳动力参与率或就业存在统计显著或经济上有意义的影响。
Abstract
We estimate the causal impacts of GLP-1 treatment on labor market outcomes using linked Danish administrative data and a matched stacked difference-in-differences design. We compare patients who initiate GLP-1 treatment during the first two years of Semaglutide availability to observably similar patients who initiate four years later. We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual. We do not detect statistically significant or economically meaningful impacts on income, labor force participation, or employment over four years.