GLP-1类药物的劳动力市场影响

中文摘要

我们利用关联匹配的丹麦行政数据和匹配堆叠双重差分设计，估计GLP-1治疗对劳动力市场结果的因果影响。我们将司美格鲁肽上市后最初两年内开始接受GLP-1治疗的患者，与在可观测特征上相似、但晚四年才开始治疗的患者进行比较。我们发现，GLP-1治疗使长期病假减少17.3%。我们估计，每名在业者启动GLP-1治疗所带来的财政总收益约相当于其年劳动收入的1.3%–1.5%。在四年内，我们未发现其对收入、劳动力参与或就业具有统计显著或经济意义上的影响。

Abstract

We estimate the causal impacts of GLP-1 treatment on labor market outcomes using linked Danish administrative data and a matched stacked difference-in-differences design. We compare patients who initiate GLP-1 treatment during the first two years of Semaglutide availability to observably similar patients who initiate four years later. We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual. We do not detect statistically significant or economically meaningful impacts on income, labor force participation, or employment over four years.