估算联邦资助研发的经济效应
Estimating the Economic Effects of Federally Funded R&D
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Sheila Campbell", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Jaeger Nelson", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Eli A. Schrag", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Heidi L. Williams", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Caleb K. Wroblewski", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
近年来，美国国会一直关注改革与研发（R&D）相关的各项政策。近期立法包括拟修改联邦研发投资资助的条款，以及影响研发税后价格的税收条款。美国国会预算办公室（CBO）已开发出分析框架，用于估算研发投资变化如何影响经济和联邦预算。本文介绍该机构当前用于模拟联邦研发资助变化经济效应的分析框架，重点关注 CBO 开发的两种不同方法：研发资本存量法与研发构成法。
Abstract
In recent years, there has been Congressional interest in changing various policies related to research and development (R&D). Recent legislation has included provisions that would modify federal funding for R&D investments and tax provisions affecting the after-tax price of R&D. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has developed analytical frameworks for estimating how changes in R&D investments affect the economy and the federal budget. This paper describes the agency’s current analytical framework for modeling the economic effects of changes in federal funding for R&D, focusing on two distinct approaches that CBO has developed: an R&D capital stock approach and an R&D components approach.