NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Christopher J. Ruhm
中文摘要
考察心理健康如何随时间变化的一种方式，是利用大规模全国性调查所提供的信息。尽管这些基于调查的测量指标原则上具有价值，并已在既有研究中得到广泛应用，但若干挑战可能会限制其实用性，或要求在应用时格外谨慎。本研究使用1999—2019年五项主要住户调查中美国18—64岁人群的数据，考察三个具体问题。第一，不同测量指标，或不同数据集中的同一指标，是否能一致地反映心理困扰随时间的变化？第二，单题测量指标与基于多个问题、经过心理测量学验证的筛查工具相比，表现如何？第三，采用这些测量指标的不同函数形式有何益处或潜在成本？对这些问题的回答如下：1）估计趋势在不同测量指标之间，以及同一指标在不同数据集之间均存在差异，而且这种差异往往十分显著；因此，某些代理指标会使人们对心理健康随时间的变化产生误导性理解；2）单题测量指标的表现不逊于、甚至优于基于多个问题的测量指标；3）没有任何一种函数形式表现出相较于其他形式的明确优势。在论证上述各点之后，本文进一步阐明了研究者尝试利用调查数据考察心理健康趋势时可借鉴的经验教训。
Abstract
One way of examining how mental health has changed over time is to use information available in large national surveys. While these survey-based measures are valuable in principle, and have been widely employed in prior research, a number of challenges may limit their practical usefulness or require considerable care in their application. This study uses data on U.S. 18-64 year olds from five major household surveys over the period 1999-2019 to investigate three specific questions. First, do different measures or the same indicator from different data sets consistently show how mental distress has changed over time? Second, how does the performance of single-item measures compare to those of psychometrically validated screeners based on multiple questions? Third, what are the benefits or potential costs of using different functional forms of these measures? The answers to these questions are as follows: 1) the estimated trends vary, often dramatically, across measures and, for the same indicator, across data sets and, as a result, some proxies provide a misleading understanding of how mental health has changed over time; 2) the single-item measures do as well or better than those based on multiple questions; 3) no single functional form demonstrates clear superiority over the others. After demonstrating these points, lessons are elucidated for researchers attempting to use survey data to examine trends in mental health.