NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Brian McCaig、Margaret S. McMillan、Marina Mavungu Ngoma、Anh T. Pham
中文摘要
工业园区是一种广泛使用的产业政策工具，但其效果差异极大。通过将越南工业园区设立的时间和地点与企业层面数据进行匹配，我们估计，一个新工业园区可在七年内使正规就业人数增加2,000人。这一平均效应掩盖了极端的偏态分布：少数工业园区创造了这些就业增量，其余园区则几乎没有创造就业。临近主要贸易枢纽的工业园区贡献了大部分效应，这一效应由出口导向型外资制造企业所驱动。在考虑溢出效应后，国内企业在工业园区附近面临集聚阴影，但在距离较远处受益；外资制造企业则以飞地形式运营，几乎不产生本地联系。
Abstract
Industrial zones are a widely used industrial policy tool, yet their effects vary enormously. Matching the timing and location of zone establishment to firm-level data in Vietnam, we estimate that a new zone raises formal employment by 2,000 workers within seven years. This average masks extreme skewness: a handful of zones generate the gains while the rest produce almost none. Zones near major trade hubs account for most of the effect, driven by export-oriented foreign manufacturers. Accounting for spillovers, domestic firms face agglomeration shadows nearby but gain farther out, while foreign manufacturers operate as enclaves, generating few local linkages.