工业区对越南正规就业创造的不均衡影响
The Uneven Impact of Industrial Zones on Formal Job Creation in Vietnam
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Brian McCaig", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Margaret S. McMillan", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Marina Mavungu Ngoma", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Anh T. Pham", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
工业区是一种被广泛使用的产业政策工具，但其效应差异巨大。通过将越南工业区设立的时间和地点与企业层面数据进行匹配，我们估计一个新工业区在七年内可使正规就业增加2000人。这一平均值掩盖了极端的偏态分布：少数工业区带来了这些增长，而其余工业区几乎毫无成效。靠近主要贸易枢纽的工业区贡献了大部分效应，这主要由出口导向型外国制造商所驱动。在考虑溢出效应后，国内企业在工业区附近面临集聚阴影，但在更远处则能获益；而外国制造商则以飞地形式运营，与当地产生的联系甚少。
Abstract
Industrial zones are a widely used industrial policy tool, yet their effects vary enormously. Matching the timing and location of zone establishment to firm-level data in Vietnam, we estimate that a new zone raises formal employment by 2,000 workers within seven years. This average masks extreme skewness: a handful of zones generate the gains while the rest produce almost none. Zones near major trade hubs account for most of the effect, driven by export-oriented foreign manufacturers. Accounting for spillovers, domestic firms face agglomeration shadows nearby but gain farther out, while foreign manufacturers operate as enclaves, generating few local linkages.