NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Pawel Adrjan、Mária Balgova、Simon Jäger、Jonas Jessen、Jason Sockin
中文摘要
离散选择实验被广泛用于估计劳动者对工作福利的支付意愿（WTP），其前提假设是，改变某一属性不会改变劳动者对其他工作属性的信念。我们在一项以德国劳动者为对象的大规模离散选择实验中，嵌入了一项市场价格已知的福利——一种广受欢迎的公共交通月票——以检验这一假设。许多劳动者，包括公共交通使用者，对该月票的估值比其市场价格高出100%以上，尽管他们对其他属性的支付意愿与既有文献一致。一项补充性的信念获取实验表明，在招聘广告中宣传某项福利，例如该月票或居家办公等常见福利，会对劳动者关于该工作未列明属性的信念产生因果影响。招聘广告中公布的工资同样传递着有关未列明属性的信号，因此，用于计算支付意愿的货币度量——工资变动——本身也受到信念溢出的污染，例如较高薪酬传递出工作压力更大的信号。这些溢出意味着，离散选择估计捕捉的是感知到的属性组合，而非孤立的属性，并且扭曲了当前对非工资报酬和买方垄断势力的估计。
Abstract
Discrete choice experiments are widely used to estimate workers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for job amenities under the assumption that varying an attribute does not change workers’ beliefs about other job attributes. We test this assumption by embedding an amenity with a known market price—a popular monthly public transport pass—in a largescale discrete choice experiment with German workers. Many workers, including public transport users, overvalue the ticket by more than 100%, despite WTP for other attributes aligning with the literature. A complementary belief-elicitation experiment shows that advertising an amenity, such as the pass but also common amenities like work from home, causally shifts beliefs about unlisted attributes of the job. Posted wages similarly signal unlisted attributes so that wage variation, the money metric for WTP calculation, is itself contaminated by belief spillovers—such as higher pay signaling heightened stress. These spillovers imply that discrete choice estimates capture perceived bundles rather than isolated attributes, and distort current estimates of non-wage compensation and monopsony power.