学校停课对父母劳动供给的影响：来自加拿大面板数据的证据
The Effect of School Disruptions on Parental Labor Supply: Evidence from Canadian Panel Data
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · [{"name": "Dean R. Lillard", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Joseph J. Sabia", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Zihao Sheng", "affiliation": []}, {"name": "Casey Warman", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
本研究探讨了 COVID-19 学校停课对加拿大学龄儿童父母劳动力市场结果的影响。利用新收集的、涵盖加拿大141个城市按年级细分的学校停课数据，以及来自劳动力调查的个人层面面板数据，双重差分估计提供了稳健的证据，表明限制线下教学使有伴侣的学龄儿童母亲的就业率下降了约2个百分点。对于父亲，劳动供给的调整幅度要弱得多，且主要集中在单亲父亲身上。最后，利用行政税收记录进行的辅助分析提供了提示性证据，表明学校停课增加了单亲父母的公共福利领取。
Abstract
This study explores the effects of COVID-19 school closures on labor market outcomes of Canadian parents of school-aged children. Using newly collected data on grade-level-specific school closures across 141 Canadian cities along with individual-level panel data from the Labour Force Survey, difference-in-differences estimates provide robust evidence that restrictions on in-person schooling reduced employment among partnered mothers of school-aged children by approximately 2 percentage points. For fathers, labor supply adjustments are much weaker and concentrated on single fathers. Finally, auxiliary analyses using administrative tax records provide suggestive evidence that school closures increased public benefit receipt among single parents.