走出南非子女抚养补贴项目的青少年的心理健康影响
The mental health impact for adolescents ageing out of South Africa’s child support grant
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Tsepang Khumalo", "affiliation": ["Stellenbosch University", "Erasmus University Rotterdam"]}, {"name": "Ronelle Burger", "affiliation": ["Stellenbosch University"]}, {"name": "Marisa von Fintel", "affiliation": ["Stellenbosch University"]}]
中文摘要
尽管现金转移支付的益处已有充分文献记录，但其停止发放的负面影响——尤其是对心理健康的影响——却鲜有关注。我们利用南非纵向调查数据考察了这一问题，该数据涵盖 7899 名不重复的青少年，追踪他们随年龄增长而退出该国最大的现金转移支付项目——儿童抚养补助金（Child Support Grant）——的过程。我们发现，失去儿童抚养补助金会导致心理健康下降，其幅度相当于 CES-D（流行病学研究中心抑郁量表）得分的 0.42 个标准差，且这一结果在不同模型设定和证伪检验中均保持稳健。求职活动的增加表明资源动员是一个合理的机制，这与资源保存（Conservation of Resources）理论框架相一致。这一效应集中于城市地区的青少年，以及收入较低且来源较不多元化的家庭。研究结果指向社会保护中一个被忽视的方面：现金转移支付以何种方式、在何时被撤销，尤其是当撤销恰逢关键人生阶段之时。
Abstract
While the benefits of cash transfers are well documented, little attention has been given to the negative effects of their cessation, particularly on mental health. We examined this question using South African longitudinal survey data comprising 7899 unique adolescents tracked as they age out of the Child Support Grant , the country’s largest cash transfer. We find that loss of the Child Support Grant leads to a decline in mental health equivalent to 0.42 of a standard deviation in the CES-D score, robust across model specifications and falsification tests. Increased job search activity points to resource mobilisation as a plausible mechanism, consistent with the Conservation of Resources framework. Effects are concentrated among adolescents in urban areas and households with lower and less diversified income. The results point to a neglected aspect of social protection: how and when cash transfers are withdrawn, particularly when this coincides with critical life stages.