停电更多, 排放更多: 来自中国制造业企业自发电的证据
More power outages, more CO2 emissions: Evidence from self-generation in China's manufacturing firms
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Panbing Wan", "affiliation": ["Wuhan University"]}, {"name": "Mian Yang", "affiliation": ["Wuhan University"]}, {"name": "Bing Zhang", "affiliation": ["Nanjing University of Finance and Economics"]}]
中文摘要
电力供应不可靠在发展中国家十分普遍，但其环境影响却鲜有系统性评估。我们采用一个能够刻画电力系统两侧抵消性响应的新颖框架，量化了2003年至2010年间中国停电对CO2排放的净影响。研究发现，面对省级电网停电，制造业企业通过使用效率相对较低的自备电厂发电，完全弥补了来自接入省级电网、效率更高的集中式电厂所减少的电力供应。这导致全国CO2排放净增加。从数量上看，在我们的样本中，企业对停电的自发电响应每年导致全国CO2排放净增加约489.8万吨。这种自发电响应集中于非本地支持行业的企业、非国有企业以及非大型纳税企业。我们的研究结果凸显了电网投资与碳抵消机制对发展中国家气候政策的重要性。
Abstract
Electricity unreliability is common in developing countries, yet its environmental impacts have rarely been systematically evaluated. We quantify the net impact of power outages on CO2 emissions in China from 2003 to 2010 using a novel framework that captures offsetting responses on both sides of the power system. We find that, in response to province-level grid outages, manufacturing firms fully compensate for the reduced electricity supply from more efficient centralized power plants connected to provincial grids by generating electricity with relatively inefficient captive power plants. This leads to a net increase in nationwide CO2 emissions. Quantitatively, firms’ self-generation responses to power outages in our sample lead to a nationwide net increase of approximately 4.898 million tons of CO2 per year. This self-generation response is concentrated among firms in non-locally supported industries, non-state-owned firms, and non-large taxpayers. Our results highlight the importance of grid investment and carbon offset mechanisms for climate policy in developing countries.