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停电越多,二氧化碳排放越多:来自中国制造业企业自备发电的证据

More power outages, more CO2 emissions: Evidence from self-generation in China's manufacturing firms
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · Panbing Wan、Mian Yang、Bing Zhang

中文摘要

电力供应不可靠在发展中国家十分常见,但其环境影响鲜有系统评估。我们采用一个能够捕捉电力系统供需两侧相互抵消反应的新框架,量化了2003—2010年停电对中国二氧化碳排放的净影响。我们发现,面对省级电网停电,制造业企业通过使用效率相对较低的自备电厂发电,完全弥补了与省级电网相连、效率更高的集中式电厂所减少的电力供应。这导致全国二氧化碳排放净增加。从量级来看,样本中企业针对停电采取的自备发电应对措施使全国二氧化碳排放每年净增加约489.8万吨。这种自备发电反应集中在非地方重点支持行业的企业、非国有企业和非大型纳税企业。我们的结果凸显了电网投资和碳抵消机制对发展中国家气候政策的重要性。

Abstract

Electricity unreliability is common in developing countries, yet its environmental impacts have rarely been systematically evaluated. We quantify the net impact of power outages on CO2 emissions in China from 2003 to 2010 using a novel framework that captures offsetting responses on both sides of the power system. We find that, in response to province-level grid outages, manufacturing firms fully compensate for the reduced electricity supply from more efficient centralized power plants connected to provincial grids by generating electricity with relatively inefficient captive power plants. This leads to a net increase in nationwide CO2 emissions. Quantitatively, firms’ self-generation responses to power outages in our sample lead to a nationwide net increase of approximately 4.898 million tons of CO2 per year. This self-generation response is concentrated among firms in non-locally supported industries, non-state-owned firms, and non-large taxpayers. Our results highlight the importance of grid investment and carbon offset mechanisms for climate policy in developing countries.
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