埃塞俄比亚的大规模土地收购：对农业生产率与森林砍伐的影响
Large-scale land acquisitions in Ethiopia: Impacts on agricultural productivity and deforestation
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Workineh Kassie", "affiliation": ["University of Gondar"]}, {"name": "Yeshwas Admasu", "affiliation": ["World Health Organization - Denmark", "University of Gondar"]}, {"name": "Dagim Belay", "affiliation": ["University of Copenhagen"]}, {"name": "Solomon Walelign", "affiliation": ["University of Gondar"]}, {"name": "Jipeng Zhang", "affiliation": ["Shandong University"]}]
中文摘要
大规模土地收购（LSLAs）在发展中国家迅速扩张，并被宣传为加速农业转型的一条路径。然而，关于其发展影响与环境影响的可信证据仍然有限。本文利用埃塞俄比亚甘贝拉（Gambella）地区大规模土地收购交错（分批）实施在空间和时间上的差异，为其对农业生产和森林结果的影响提供了因果证据。我们将 2000—2020 年土地交易的地理编码行政记录与关于作物生产、森林覆盖和土地利用的高分辨率遥感数据相结合。使用异质性稳健的双重差分估计量，我们没有发现证据表明大规模土地收购提高了农业生产或耕地占比。相反，它导致树木覆盖和林地占比出现显著且持续的下降。这一毁林—生产悖论表明，在监管薄弱、基础设施不足的环境下，监管不力的大规模投资可能带来巨大的环境负担，却无法实现为其提供正当性的预期结构性转型。
Abstract
Large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) have expanded rapidly in developing countries and promoted as a pathway to accelerate agricultural transformation. Yet, credible evidence on their developmental and environmental impacts remains limited. This paper provides causal evidence on the effects of LSLAs on agricultural production and forest outcomes by exploiting spatial and temporal variation in the staggered implementation of LSLAs in Gambella, Ethiopia. We combine geo-referenced administrative records on land transactions (2000–2020) with high-resolution remote sensing data on crop production, forest cover, and land use. Using a heterogeneity robust difference-in-difference estimator, we find no evidence that LSLAs increase agricultural production or the share of crop land. In contrast, it leads to significant and persistent declines in tree cover and forest land share. This deforestation-production paradox suggests that, in settings characterized by weak oversight and insufficient infrastructure, poorly regulated large-scale investments can generate substantial environmental burden without delivering the anticipated structural transformation that justifies them.