我们从北美收入维持实验中学到了什么？关于双亲家庭的新数据与证据
What did we learn from the North American Income Maintenance Experiments? New data and evidence on two-parent families
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Chris Riddell", "affiliation": ["University of Waterloo"]}, {"name": "W. Craig Riddell", "affiliation": ["University of British Columbia", "University of Waterloo"]}, {"name": "W. Craig Riddell", "affiliation": ["University of British Columbia", "University of Waterloo"]}]
中文摘要
我们重新评估了收入维持实验(Income Maintenance Experiments)中负所得税(NIT)对双亲家庭的影响。加里(Gary)和西雅图(Seattle)实验未能通过平衡性检验。我们否定了一个有争议的发现——即 NIT 提高了西雅图-丹佛实验中的婚姻分居; 该结论完全由受到污染的西雅图实验所驱动。此外, 利用从档案记录中新收集的数据, 我们估计温尼伯(Winnipeg)的幸福感、婚姻满意度、家庭生产和社会活动均有大幅上升。最后, 在新泽西(New Jersey)、丹佛(Denver)和温尼伯, 我们估计出的劳动供给反应远大于以往估计, 且点估计与统计显著性在各实验、各国之间表现出惊人的一致性。
Abstract
We re-assess the consequences of a NIT for two-parent families in the Income Maintenance Experiments. The Gary and Seattle experiments fail balancing tests. We reject the contentious finding that the NIT increased marital separations in Seattle-Denver, which is driven solely by the contaminated Seattle experiment. Moreover, using newly collected data from archival records, we estimate substantial increases in happiness, marital satisfaction, household production, and social activities in Winnipeg. Finally, in New Jersey, Denver and Winnipeg we estimate far greater labor supply responses than previous estimates, with remarkable consistency in point estimates and statistical significance across experiments and countries.