我们从北美收入维持实验中学到了什么？关于双亲家庭的新数据与新证据

中文摘要

我们重新评估负所得税（NIT）对收入维持实验中双亲家庭的影响。加里实验和西雅图实验未能通过平衡性检验。我们否定了NIT增加了西雅图—丹佛实验中婚姻分居这一有争议的发现，该结论完全由受到污染的西雅图实验所驱动。此外，利用新近从档案记录中收集的数据，我们估计温尼伯受试者的幸福感、婚姻满意度、家庭生产和社会活动均大幅提升。最后，在新泽西、丹佛和温尼伯，我们估计的劳动供给反应远大于以往估计，且各实验、各国之间的点估计与统计显著性表现出显著的一致性。

Abstract

We re-assess the consequences of a NIT for two-parent families in the Income Maintenance Experiments. The Gary and Seattle experiments fail balancing tests. We reject the contentious finding that the NIT increased marital separations in Seattle-Denver, which is driven solely by the contaminated Seattle experiment. Moreover, using newly collected data from archival records, we estimate substantial increases in happiness, marital satisfaction, household production, and social activities in Winnipeg. Finally, in New Jersey, Denver and Winnipeg we estimate far greater labor supply responses than previous estimates, with remarkable consistency in point estimates and statistical significance across experiments and countries.