政府需求与企业增长

Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Bernard Hoekman", "affiliation": ["Centre for Economic Policy Research", "European University Institute"]}, {"name": "Marco Sanfilippo", "affiliation": ["Collegio Carlo Alberto", "University of Turin"]}, {"name": "Filippo Santi", "affiliation": ["University of Bologna"]}, {"name": "Rohit Ticku", "affiliation": ["European University Institute"]}]

中文摘要

发展中国家的公共采购约占 GDP 的 13%, 为国内企业——尤其是那些面临需求约束的企业——提供了重要的市场机会。本文利用详细的行政数据和一种事件研究方法, 考察在乌干达向政府实体销售对企业绩效的影响; 该方法校正了企业自选择以及处理时点上的异质性。结果显示, 尽管企业在进入政府合同后总销售额有所增加, 但生产率(以人均增加值衡量)并未改善。此外, 对非政府客户的销售额急剧下降, 这种再配置效应具有持续性。当企业开始向大型私营部门买方销售时, 并未观察到这一效应。基于一项针对参与公共采购企业的原创调查, 我们指出了这些动态背后的潜在驱动因素, 包括产能约束以及公共部门与私营部门销售之间的盈利能力差异。

Abstract

Public procurement in developing countries accounts for approximately 13% of GDP, offering a significant market opportunity for domestic firms, especially those facing demand constraints. This paper explores the impact of selling to government entities on firm performance in Uganda, leveraging detailed administrative data and an event study methodology that corrects for firm self-selection and heterogeneity in the timing of the treatment. The results reveal that while firms increase their total sales after entering government contracts, they do not see improvements in productivity (measured by value added per worker). Moreover, sales to non-government customers drop sharply. This reallocation effect is persistent. This effect is not observed when firms start to sell to large private-sector buyers. Drawing on an original survey of firms engaged in public procurement, we highlight potential drivers of these dynamics, including capacity constraints and profitability differences between public and private sector sales.