中文摘要
军事支出对产出具有显著且持久的影响，因为它推动公共支出的构成向研发倾斜。这在中期促进了创新和私人投资，并在更长期提高了生产率和GDP。即使公共研发支出与战争支出无关，它也能在经济周期之外刺激经济活动。相比之下，公共投资的效应持续时间较短，而公共消费在大多数时期的影响至多较为有限。我们使用具有较长滞后阶数的贝叶斯向量自回归模型（BVAR）和美国125年的数据得出这些结论，其中包括自1890年以来按主要类别新近重构的政府支出序列。(JEL E21, E22, E23, E62, H50, H56, O30)
Abstract
Military spending has large and persistent effects on output because it shifts the composition of public spending toward R&D. This boosts innovation and private investment in the medium term and increases productivity and GDP at longer horizons. Public R&D expenditure stimulates economic activities beyond the business cycle even when it is not associated with war spending. In contrast, the effects of public investment are shorter-lived, while public consumption has a modest impact at most horizons. We reach these conclusions using BVAR with long lags and 125 years of US data, including newly reconstructed series of government spending by main categories since 1890. (JEL E21, E22, E23, E62, H50, H56, O30)