American Economic Review · 2025 · Felix Chopra、Christopher Roth、Johannes Wohlfart
中文摘要
我们对美国家庭开展了一项实地实验，以研究对长期房价增长的预期如何影响支出决策。我们通过提供不同的专家预测，外生改变调查受访者的预期。利用丰富的家庭扫描仪数据衡量的房主支出对房价预期缺乏弹性。相比之下，租户在预期房价增长较快时会减少支出。这些模式反映出，更高的未来财富对房主产生正向财富效应，而更高的未来住房成本则对两类群体均产生负向收入效应。我们的研究凸显了资产价格增长以及对经济的长期预期对家庭行为的影响。(JEL C93, D12, D84, D91, G51, R31)
Abstract
We conduct a field experiment with US households to study how expectations about long-run home price growth shape spending decisions. We exogenously vary survey respondents' expectations by providing different expert forecasts. Homeowners' spending, measured using rich home-scanner data, is inelastic to home price expectations. By contrast, renters reduce their spending when expecting higher home price growth. These patterns reflect positive wealth effects for owners from higher future wealth and negative income effects for both groups due to higher future housing costs. Our study highlights consequences of asset price growth and long-term expectations about the economy for household behavior. (JEL C93, D12, D84, D91, G51, R31)