房价预期与支出：来自一项田野实验的证据
Home Price Expectations and Spending: Evidence from a Field Experiment
American Economic Review · 2025 · [{"name": "Felix Chopra", "affiliation": ["Frankfurt School of Finance & Management"]}, {"name": "Christopher Roth", "affiliation": ["University of Cologne", "Max Planck Institute for Behavioral Economics"]}, {"name": "Johannes Wohlfart", "affiliation": ["University of Cologne", "Max Planck Institute for Behavioral Economics"]}]
中文摘要
我们对美国家庭开展了一项田野实验，研究人们对住房价格长期增长的预期如何影响其支出决策。我们通过向调查受访者提供不同的专家预测，外生地改变了他们的预期。基于丰富的家庭扫描数据衡量，房主的支出对房价预期缺乏弹性。相比之下，当预期房价增长更高时，租房者会减少支出。这些模式反映出：未来财富增加会给房主带来正向财富效应，而未来住房成本上升则会给两类群体都带来负向收入效应。本研究凸显了资产价格增长以及对经济的长期预期对家庭行为的影响。（JEL C93、D12、D84、D91、G51、R31）
Abstract
We conduct a field experiment with US households to study how expectations about long-run home price growth shape spending decisions. We exogenously vary survey respondents' expectations by providing different expert forecasts. Homeowners' spending, measured using rich home-scanner data, is inelastic to home price expectations. By contrast, renters reduce their spending when expecting higher home price growth. These patterns reflect positive wealth effects for owners from higher future wealth and negative income effects for both groups due to higher future housing costs. Our study highlights consequences of asset price growth and long-term expectations about the economy for household behavior. (JEL C93, D12, D84, D91, G51, R31)