从贸易保护主义到法律保护主义：特朗普贸易战如何损害在华美资企业
From trade protectionism to legal protectionism: How the Trump trade war harms US firms in China
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Shiyu Bo", "affiliation": ["Jinan University"]}, {"name": "Wen Liu", "affiliation": ["Jinan University"]}]
中文摘要
本研究考察“特朗普贸易战”所引发的贸易保护主义对美国企业的一项非预期后果。我们使用2014年至2020年中国全部民事判决的总体（涵盖100万起企业间诉讼案件），采用三重差分方法识别贸易战对司法结果的因果影响。研究发现，在更易受到关税冲击的城市，美国原告起诉中国被告的案件胜诉率显著下降，而由中国原告或非美国的外国原告提起的案件则未受影响。上述结果在与借助NLP算法构建的高度相似案件进行比较、并在考虑策略性立案与非随机披露之后，依然稳健。机制分析表明，我们的发现由法官态度的转变所驱动，这一转变主要源于来自公民而非政府的俘获压力，而高度专业化的法官则对此起到缓冲作用。
Abstract
This study examines an unintended consequence of trade protectionism on US firms resulting from ‘the Trump trade war.’ Using the universe of all civil verdicts containing one million firm-to-firm cases in China from 2014 to 2020, we employ a triple-difference approach to identify the trade war’s causal impact on judicial outcomes. Our findings reveal a significant decline in win rates for US plaintiffs suing Chinese defendants in cities more exposed to tariff shocks, while cases initiated by Chinese or non-US foreign plaintiffs remain unaffected. These results are robust to comparing highly similar cases constructed via an NLP algorithm and accounting for strategic case filing and nonrandom disclosure. Mechanism analysis indicates that our findings are driven by shifts in judges’ attitudes, primarily due to pressures from citizen rather than government capture, whereas highly professional judges serve as a buffer against it.