小型开放经济体的一体化货币与金融政策
Integrated Monetary and Financial Policies for Small Open Economies
Econometrica · 2025 · [{"name": "Suman S. Basu", "affiliation": ["International Monetary Fund"]}, {"name": "Emine Boz", "affiliation": ["International Monetary Fund"]}, {"name": "Gita Gopinath", "affiliation": ["International Monetary Fund"]}, {"name": "Francisco Roch", "affiliation": ["Universidad Torcuato Di Tella"]}, {"name": "D. Filiz Unsal", "affiliation": ["Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques"]}]
中文摘要
我们构建了一个易于处理的小型开放经济框架,用以刻画货币政策利率、外汇 (FX) 干预、资本管制和国内宏观审慎措施的约束有效运用。该模型包含主导货币定价、由金融中介投资组合约束所引致的本币债务正溢价,以及偶尔具有约束力的外部和国内借贷约束。我们刻画了传统政策主张——仅依靠政策利率和汇率灵活性——即使在存在外部性的情况下仍然充分的条件。相比之下,为管理噪声交易者流入流出本币债务市场的资金,应以外汇干预,并在某些情况下以资本流入税,取代传统政策主张。此外,如果一国同时面临本币溢价与外部借贷约束,我们证明,某些旨在限制外汇错配的监管措施可能缓解外部借贷约束,却会加剧本币溢价。最后,我们表明,当外部冲击引发国内住房市场压力时,资本管制可能优于国内宏观审慎措施。
Abstract
We develop a tractable small‐open‐economy framework to characterize the constrained efficient use of the monetary policy rate, foreign exchange (FX) intervention, capital controls, and domestic macroprudential measures. The model features dominant currency pricing, positive premia on local currency debt arising from financiers' portfolio constraints, and occasionally‐binding external and domestic borrowing constraints. We characterize the conditions under which the traditional prescription—relying solely on the policy rate and exchange rate flexibility—remains sufficient, even in the presence of externalities. By contrast, to manage noise trader flows into and out of the local currency debt market, FX intervention and in some cases capital inflow taxes should be used instead of the traditional prescription. Moreover, if a country faces a mix of local currency premia and external borrowing constraints, we establish that certain regulations to limit FX mismatch may alleviate the external borrowing constraint but exacerbate the local currency premia. Finally, we show that capital controls may dominate domestic macroprudential measures in cases when external shocks trigger stress in domestic housing markets.
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