主席演讲:身份政治
Presidential Address: Identity Politics
Econometrica · 2025 · [{"name": "Nicola Gennaioli", "affiliation": ["Bocconi University"]}, {"name": "Guido Tabellini", "affiliation": ["Center for Economic and Policy Research", "Bocconi University", "Fafo Foundation"]}]
中文摘要
我们提出一个基于内生社会身份的政治极化维度变化理论。我们按照Bonomi、Gennaioli和Tabellini(2021)的方法将选民身份形式化,但引入了在政策上展开竞争、并通过传播刻板印象以说服选民的政党。各政党在历史上分别与不同社会群体相联系,这些群体的成员对相应政党的信息更易接受。从阶级身份向文化身份的内生转变解释了三项重大变化:(i)选民与政党之间日益加剧的文化冲突;(ii)尽管不平等程度上升,再分配冲突却有所缓和;(iii)下层阶级选民从左翼转向右翼的政治重组。政党传播刻板印象的激励是基于身份的极化的关键驱动因素。利用调查数据和国会演讲,我们表明,与我们的模型一致,在"中国冲击"(Autor、Dorn、Hanson和Majlesi,2020)所引致的选民重组中,存在支持(i)和(ii)的证据。
Abstract
We offer a theory of changing dimensions of political polarization based on endogenous social identity. We formalize voter identity as in Bonomi, Gennaioli, and Tabellini (2021), but add parties that compete on policy and spread stereotypes to persuade voters. Parties are historically connected to different social groups, whose members are more receptive to the party messages. An endogenous switch from class to cultural identity accounts for three major changes: (i) growing cultural conflict between voters and parties; (ii) dampening of redistributive conflict, despite rising inequality; (iii) a realignment of lower class voters from the left to the right. The incentive of parties to spread stereotypes is a key driver of identity‐based polarization. Using survey data and congressional speeches, we show that—consistent with our model—there is evidence of (i) and (ii) in the voting realignment induced by the “China Shock” (Autor, Dorn, Hanson, and Majlesi (2020)).
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