Econometrica · 2025 · [{"name": "Adam Kapor", "affiliation": ["Princeton Public Schools"]}]
中文摘要
透明还是不透明，是大学招生政策的一个重要维度。大学可能通过对申请材料的综合评审获得有用信息，但这样做也可能加剧不确定性，从而使信息匮乏的潜在申请者望而却步。本文以得克萨斯州“前10%计划”为背景，利用得州的调查数据和行政数据，并运用一个涵盖大学申请、录取、入学、成绩及学业持续性的模型，考察招生透明度的影响。我的估计表明，该计划使前10%（前十分位）学生就读旗舰大学的概率提高了9.1个百分点，其中三分之二源于信息效应，而非机械效应。因该计划而入学的学生更有可能来自低收入高中，且学业表现优于被其替代的学生。如果同时提供助学金信息，这些效应将会更大；这些效应是由透明度驱动的，而非源于自动录取与酌情录取所采用规则之间的不一致。
Abstract
Transparency versus opacity is an important dimension of college admission policy. Colleges may gain useful information from a holistic review of applicants' materials, but in doing so may contribute to uncertainty that discourages potential applicants with poor information. This paper investigates the impacts of admissions transparency in the context of Texas' Top Ten Percent Plan, using survey and administrative data from Texas and a model of college applications, admissions, enrollment, grades, and persistence. I estimate that two thirds of the plan's 9.1 point impact on top‐decile students' probability of attending a flagship university was due to information rather than mechanical effects. Students induced to enroll are more likely to come from low‐income high schools, and academically outperform the students that they displace. These effects would be larger if complemented by financial‐aid information, and are driven by transparency, not misalignment between the rules used for automatic and discretionary admissions.