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利用气候变化分歧:理论与证据

Leveraging the Disagreement on Climate Change: Theory and Evidence
Journal of Political Economy · 2025 · Laura Bakkensen、Toàn Phan、Tsz-Nga Wong

中文摘要

我们构建了一个包含期限选择的信贷搜寻模型,其中各主体对长期灾难何时会损害抵押资产存在分歧。模型预测,对灾难持悲观预期的主体更有可能加杠杆购买风险资产,并偏好期限更长的债务合约。直观而言,悲观者将债务合约中的违约选择权视为隐含的灾难保险,其保障范围随期限延长而隐含扩大,且从乐观贷款人处获得这种保障的成本更低。利用高分辨率海平面上升预测以及涵盖沿海房地产和抵押贷款的全面专有数据,我们发现了稳健支持这些预测的证据。研究发现对保险强制要求、证券化、灾难援助和金融稳定具有相关政策启示。

Abstract

We develop a credit search model with maturity choice where agents disagree on when a long-run disaster will damage collateral assets. It predicts that disaster-pessimistic agents are more likely to leverage risky asset purchases and prefer debt contracts with longer maturities. Intuitively, pessimists value the default option of debt contracts as implicit disaster insurance, whose coverage increases with maturity implicitly and costs less to optimistic lenders. Using high-resolution sea level rise projections and comprehensive propriety data on coastal real estate and mortgages, we find robust evidence of these predictions. The findings provide relevant policy implications on insurance mandates, securitization, disaster assistance, and financial stability.
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