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选举中的说服与信息聚合

Persuasion and Information Aggregation in Elections
Journal of Political Economy · 2025 · Carl Heese、Stephan Lauermann

中文摘要

本文研究一场大规模多数制选举,其中选民具有异质的私人偏好和外生私人信号。我们表明,贝叶斯说服者可以通过提供额外信息,在某个均衡中实现任意依状态而定的结果。在这一设定下,如果没有说服者提供的信息,孔多塞陪审团定理的一个版本成立。说服并不要求详细了解选民的私人信息和偏好:同样的额外信息在不同环境中均有效。这些结果几乎不要求说服者具备承诺能力。最后,这一说服机制对成员少至15人的小型委员会也同样有效。

Abstract

This paper studies a large majority election with voters who have heterogeneous, private preferences and exogenous private signals. We show that a Bayesian persuader can implement any state-contingent outcome in some equilibrium by providing additional information. In this setting, without the persuader's information, a version of the Condorcet Jury Theorem holds. Persuasion does not require detailed knowledge of the voters' private information and preferences: the same additional information is effective across environments. The results require almost no commitment power by the persuader. Finally, the persuasion mechanism is effective also in small committees with as few as 15 members.
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