步入正轨？历史中国的铁路、工业发展与分配效应
On the right track? Railroads, industrial development, and distributional effects in historical China
Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Shiyu Bo", "affiliation": ["Jinan University"]}, {"name": "Ting Chen", "affiliation": ["Hong Kong Baptist University"]}, {"name": "Cong Liu", "affiliation": ["Jinan University"]}, {"name": "Yi Zhou", "affiliation": ["Zhongnan University of Economics and Law"]}]
中文摘要
我们首次对铁路通达性对近代中国工业增长的总体影响与分配效应进行了定量评估。利用新数字化的铁路扩张数据, 并以到假想铁路网络的距离作为工具变量, 我们发现, 1858 年至 1936 年间铁路通达性显著提高了地方工业企业的年度进入数量, 并提升了 1933 年的工业产出。然而, 该效应高度局部化, 集中于距铁路线 10 公里以内的县, 且在历史上的人口与交通中心更强。运用因果中介框架分析纺织业, 我们发现铁路主要通过提升机制纱的市场可及性、并降低工人与技术人员的出行成本来促进企业进入。进一步的证据表明, 铁路通达性促进了技术采用。
Abstract
We present the first quantitative evaluation of the overall impact and distributional effects of railroad access on industrial growth in historical China. Using newly digitized data on railroad expansion and distance to hypothetical railroad networks as instruments, we find that railroad access significantly increased the annual entry of local industrial firms from 1858 to 1936 and industrial output in 1933. However, the effect is highly localized, concentrated in counties within 10 km of railroad lines, and stronger in historical population and transportation centers. Using a causal mediation framework to analyze the textile industry, we find that railroads facilitated firm entry primarily by enhancing market access to manufactured yarn and lowering travel costs for workers and technicians. Further evidence shows that access to railroads promoted technology adoption.