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婚姻匹配的变化:理论与来自美国的证据

Changes in Marital Sorting: Theory and Evidence from the United States
Journal of Political Economy · 2025 · Pierre-André Chiappori、Mónica Costa Dias、Costas Meghir、Hanzhe Zhang

中文摘要

正向同质匹配是指具有相似特征的个体倾向于形成伴侣关系。当匹配所依据的特征(如教育)的边际分布在某一性别或两个性别中发生变化时,衡量两个经济体之间同质匹配程度的差异是一项挑战。我们展示了使用不同测度如何可能得出不同结论。我们对比值比、归一化迹和似然比等测度给出了公理化刻画,并赋予比值比以结构性经济学解释。随后,我们运用这一方法考察了20世纪50年代队列与70年代队列之间按教育水平进行的婚姻匹配发生了怎样的变化;这些队列的教育水平和劳动力市场回报均发生了大幅变化。

Abstract

Positive assortative matching refers to the tendency of individuals with similar characteristics to form partnerships. Measuring the extent to which assortative matching differs between two economies is challenging when the marginal distributions of the characteristic along which sorting takes place (e.g., education) change for either or both sexes. We show how the use of different measures can generate different conclusions. We provide axiomatic characterization for measures such as the odds ratio, normalized trace, and likelihood ratio, and provide a structural economic interpretation of the odds ratio. We then use our approach to consider how marital sorting by education changed between the 1950s and the 1970s cohort, for which both educational attainment and returns in the labor market changed substantially.
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