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抵押贷款储蓄罐:通过分期偿还积累财富

The Mortgage Piggy Bank: Building Wealth Through Amortization
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2024 · Asaf Bernstein、Peter Koudijs

中文摘要

2013年,荷兰政府规定,新增合规抵押贷款必须全部分期偿还。在双重差分设计下,我们估计分期偿还带来的边际财富积累效应接近于1,即使在五年后仍是如此。改革后购房的家庭主要削减消费和闲暇,而非削减其他储蓄,从而使财富增加。当我们使用生活事件作为购房时点的工具变量时,这一结果依然成立。对于表面上不受约束的家庭和搬迁家庭,估计结果相近,表明我们的结果具有广泛适用性。与一个简单模型一致,我们发现,对于金融素养看似较低或不愿调整短期消费的家庭,估计值较低。抵押贷款分期偿还计划是全球规模最大的储蓄计划之一,我们的结果凸显了其对家庭财富积累和宏观审慎政策的关键重要性。

Abstract

Abstract In 2013, the Dutch government mandated that new conforming mortgages must fully amortize. Within a difference-in-differences design, we estimate that the marginal wealth accumulation from amortization is close to one, even five years later. Households purchasing after the reform primarily cut consumption and leisure over other savings, leading to a rise in wealth. This holds if we use life events to instrument for the timing of home purchase. Estimates are similar for seemingly unconstrained households and movers, suggesting a broad applicability of our results. Consistent with a simple model, we find lower estimates for households that appear less financially sophisticated or willing to adjust short-term consumption. Mortgage amortization schedules are among the largest savings plans in the world, and our results highlight their critical importance for household wealth building and macroprudential policies.
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