抵押贷款储蓄罐:通过摊还积累财富
The Mortgage Piggy Bank: Building Wealth Through Amortization
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2024 · [{"name": "Asaf Bernstein", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research"]}, {"name": "Peter Koudijs", "affiliation": ["Erasmus University Rotterdam"]}]
中文摘要
2013年,荷兰政府规定新发放的合规抵押贷款必须实行全额摊还。基于双重差分设计,我们估计,即使在五年之后,摊还带来的边际财富积累仍接近于1。改革后购房的家庭主要通过削减消费和闲暇、而非减少其他储蓄来实现这一财富增加。若以生活事件作为购房时点的工具变量,该结果依然成立。对于看似不受约束的家庭和搬迁家庭而言,估计结果相近,表明本文结论具有较强的普适性。与一个简单模型的预测一致,我们发现,对于金融素养似乎较低、或较不愿调整短期消费的家庭,估计值更低。抵押贷款摊还计划是全球规模最大的储蓄计划之一,本文结果凸显了其对家庭财富积累和宏观审慎政策的关键重要性。
Abstract
Abstract In 2013, the Dutch government mandated that new conforming mortgages must fully amortize. Within a difference-in-differences design, we estimate that the marginal wealth accumulation from amortization is close to one, even five years later. Households purchasing after the reform primarily cut consumption and leisure over other savings, leading to a rise in wealth. This holds if we use life events to instrument for the timing of home purchase. Estimates are similar for seemingly unconstrained households and movers, suggesting a broad applicability of our results. Consistent with a simple model, we find lower estimates for households that appear less financially sophisticated or willing to adjust short-term consumption. Mortgage amortization schedules are among the largest savings plans in the world, and our results highlight their critical importance for household wealth building and macroprudential policies.
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