停时模型中的持续期依赖分解
Decomposing Duration Dependence in a Stopping Time Model
Review of Economic Studies · 2023 · [{"name": "Fernando Álvarez", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}, {"name": "Kataŕına Borovičková", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond"]}, {"name": "Robert Shimer", "affiliation": ["University of Chicago"]}]
中文摘要
本文构建了一个刻画劳动者就业状态转入与转出的经济模型。异质性劳动者的工作净收益是一个带漂移的布朗运动, 当该净收益触及最优选择的边界时, 劳动者便转换其就业状态。这意味着每位劳动者的失业(非就业)持续期服从逆高斯分布。我们允许劳动者之间存在任意异质性, 并证明: 根据每位劳动者两段非就业状态的持续期数据, 逆高斯分布的分布可以被部分识别。我们使用奥地利社会保障数据估计该模型, 发现动态选择是持续期依赖的一个关键来源。
Abstract
Abstract We develop an economic model of transitions in and out of employment. Heterogeneous workers switch employment status when the net benefit from working, a Brownian motion with drift, hits optimally chosen barriers. This implies that the duration of jobless spells for each worker has an inverse Gaussian distribution. We allow for arbitrary heterogeneity across workers and prove that the distribution of inverse Gaussian distributions is partially identified from the duration of two non-employment spells for each worker. We estimate the model using Austrian social security data and find that dynamic selection is a critical source of duration dependence.