青年红利：人口转型的政治影响

This paper revisits the political economy of transitions to democracy. We extend a canonical rational choice model of democratization by introducing demographic structure, arguing that it shapes the material incentives for political mobilization. Younger cohorts benefit from democratic change over a longer horizon and face lower costs of participation, as they are less economically and socially integrated. As a result, increases in the youth share—such as during the demographic transition—can create a “window of opportunity” for democratization by strengthening the threat of political unrest faced by autocratic elites. We test this prediction using country-year panel data with detailed information on population age structure. Fixed-effects regressions reveal a robust positive relationship between the youth share and the likelihood of democratic improvement. This effect is strongest for the youngest cohorts, in particular individuals aged 15–19. To address concerns about endogeneity, we implement an instrumental variable strategy based on lagged fertility, including variation from neighboring countries. The IV estimates are consistent with the baseline results and are interpreted with appropriate caution. We also show that the effect of the youth share is amplified during economic downturns, highlighting a complementarity between demographic and macroeconomic forces.