移民对农业发展的影响

Journal of Development Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "David Escamilla‐Guerrero", "affiliation": ["University of St Andrews"]}, {"name": "Andrea Papadia", "affiliation": ["University of York"]}, {"name": "Ariell Zimran", "affiliation": ["Vanderbilt University"]}]

中文摘要

我们研究了大规模移民时代(1855–1920 年)的移民对 1920 年巴西农业发展的影响。我们以总移民流入与巴西铁路网络扩张的交互项作为市镇移民占比的工具变量, 发现市镇中欧洲移民占比更高会导致农场价值上升。该效应的大部分源于土地更集约的耕作。我们还发现, 移民不太可能减缓了巴西的结构转型。我们的结果表明, 流入新兴农业经济体的移民能够对农业发展作出实质性贡献。

Abstract

We study the effects of immigration during the Age of Mass Migration (1855–1920) on Brazil’s agricultural development in 1920. Instrumenting for a municipality’s immigrant share using the interaction of aggregate immigrant inflows and the expansion of Brazil’s railway network, we find that a greater share of European immigrants in a municipality led to an increase in farm values. The bulk of the effect was the product of more intense cultivation of land. We also find that it is unlikely that immigration slowed Brazil’s structural transformation. Our results imply that immigration into an emerging agricultural economy can contribute substantially to agricultural development.