童年自信、教育与劳动力市场
Childhood Confidence, Schooling, and the Labor Market
Journal of Human Resources · 2022 · [{"name": "Lucy Page", "affiliation": ["Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology"]}, {"name": "Hannah Ruebeck", "affiliation": ["Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology"]}]
中文摘要
我们利用美国收入动态面板调查（PSID）家庭子女样本，将其8—11岁时在数学方面表现出的过度自信与自信不足，与22年后的教育及就业结果联系起来。约20%的儿童对自身数学能力持有明显有偏的信念，且这些信念存在显著的性别差异。在控制实际测得能力的条件下，童年时期的过度自信与自信不足能够预测青少年期的考试成绩、高中与大学毕业情况、是否主修或从事科学、技术、工程与数学（STEM）领域，以及收入水平和失业状况。在所有衡量指标上，更高的自信均预示着更好的结果。这些有偏信念会持续到成年期，并可能随着受访者年龄增长而继续影响其结果，因为中间结果并未能完全解释这些长期相关性。
Abstract
We link over- and underconfidence in math at ages 8–11 to education and employment outcomes 22 years later among the children of PSID households. About 20 percent of children have markedly biased beliefs about their math ability, and beliefs are strongly gendered. Conditional on measured ability, childhood over- and underconfidence predict adolescent test scores, high school and college graduation, majoring or working in STEM, earnings, and unemployment. Across all metrics, higher confidence predicts better outcomes. These biased beliefs persist into adulthood and could continue to affect outcomes as respondents age, since intermediate outcomes do not fully explain these long-run correlations.