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社会运动会影响决策者吗?来自美国移民法院的证据

Do social movements influence decision makers? Evidence from U.S. immigration courts
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · Yiannis Kountouris

中文摘要

抗议、示威和游行等集体行动形式,即使不影响法律或正式制度,能否影响法院裁决?本文评估抗议活动对美国移民法院遣返程序结果的影响。利用双重差分设计和移民法院行政数据,我比较了2006年移民改革抗议活动前后的遣返程序结果。我发现一些证据表明,抗议活动对遣返裁决产生了幅度较小且短暂的影响。抗议活动开始后的至多3周内,遣返概率似乎下降了约2个百分点。几乎没有证据表明动员的总体效应对结果具有中期或长期影响。这一效应因案件、地点和法官特征而异。

Abstract

Can modes of collective action, including protests, demonstrations, and marches influence court decisions, even without affecting the law or formal institutions? Here, I assess the influence of protests on the results of removal proceedings in U.S. immigration courts. Using a difference-in-differences design and administrative immigration court data, I compare removal proceedings outcomes around the time of the 2006 immigration reform protests. I find some evidence of a small and temporary influence on removal decisions. The probability of removals appears to decrease by approximately 2 percentage points for up to 3 weeks following the protests’ onset. There is little evidence that the overall effect of mobilization has medium or long term influence on outcomes. The effect varies across case, location and judge characteristics.
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