超贫困“毕业”项目能否增强女性抵御天气冲击的韧性？来自埃塞俄比亚农村地区的证据
Do ultra-poor graduation programs build women’s resilience to weather shocks? Evidence from rural Ethiopia
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Kalle Hirvonen", "affiliation": ["International Food Policy Research Institute"]}, {"name": "Daniel O. Gilligan", "affiliation": ["International Food Policy Research Institute"]}, {"name": "Jessica Leight", "affiliation": ["International Food Policy Research Institute"]}, {"name": "Heleene Tambet", "affiliation": ["Envia Systems (United States)"]}, {"name": "Victor Villa", "affiliation": ["International Center for Tropical Agriculture"]}]
中文摘要
我们评估了在埃塞俄比亚生产性安全网计划（PSNP）基础上叠加实施超贫困“毕业”项目，能否保护女性及其家庭免受局地天气冲击的影响。利用一项大规模整群随机试验的面板数据，并与详细的天气记录相匹配，我们识别出社区层面遭受干旱冲击的暴露情况。遭受干旱冲击的女性营养状况恶化（同时伴随家庭粮食安全水平下降和资产减少），且遭受亲密伴侣暴力的风险显著上升。然而，获得“毕业”项目的机会完全缓冲了女性遭受亲密伴侣暴力风险的上升，并部分缓冲了女性及其家庭遭受的其他不利影响。进一步分析表明，家庭储蓄状况的改善可能是该项目发挥保护作用的驱动因素。
Abstract
We assess whether layering an ultra-poor graduation program on Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) protects women and their households from localized weather shocks. Using panel data from a large cluster-randomized trial matched with detailed weather records, we identify community-level exposure to dryness shocks. Women who are exposed to dryness shocks experience deteriorating nutritional status (in conjunction with declining household food security and assets) and a significant increase in the risk of intimate partner violence. However, access to the graduation program fully buffers women from any increase in intimate partner violence, and partially buffers women and their households against other adverse effects. Further analysis suggests that improved household savings likely drives the program’s protective impact.