新冠疫情对生产率的影响

中文摘要

我们利用一项创新的企业月度调查数据，分析新冠疫情对生产率的影响。该调查询问企业新冠疫情对投入和产出的定量影响。我们发现，2020—2021年间，全要素生产率（TFP）降幅最高达6%。总体影响包含企业内生产率的大幅下降，以及具有抵消作用的正向企业间效应：生产率较低的部门及其中生产率较低的企业收缩，带来了这种正向效应。尽管疫情造成了如此大的影响，企业对疫情后情况的预测却表明，疫情对总体全要素生产率的持久影响出人意料地小。我们还观察到，影响在企业之间和部门之间存在显著异质性，其中，需要大量面对面活动的企业和部门受到的影响最大。

Abstract

Abstract We analyze the impact of Covid-19 on productivity using data from an innovative monthly firm survey that asks for quantitative impacts of Covid-19 on inputs and outputs. We find that total factor productivity (TFP) fell by up to 6% during 2020–2021. The overall impact combined large reductions in ‘within-firm’ productivity, with offsetting positive ‘between-firm’ effects as less productive sectors, and less productive firms within them, contracted. Despite these large pandemic effects, firms’ post-Covid forecasts imply surprisingly little lasting impact on aggregate TFP. We also see significant heterogeneity over firms and sectors, with the greatest impacts in those requiring extensive in-person activity.